Swine Flu 4.4: Graphic FAQ

Is there much swine flu in New York?

Yes; there is much swine flu everywhere:

From the CDC: During week 18, the following influenza activity was reported:

  • Widespread influenza activity was reported by eight states (Arizona, California, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, Texas, and Virginia).
  • Regional influenza activity was reported by 14 states (Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, Tennessee, and Utah).
  • Local influenza activity was reported by the District of Columbia and 15 states (Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).
  • Sporadic activity was reported by 13 states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Vermont, and West Virginia).
On both of these graphs (from the CDC), there is an obvious jump in the number of flu cases all over the US.  Not all are swine flu, but it appears to be more prevalent now than any of the seasonal strains.INFLUENZA Virus Isolated
View WHO-NREVSS Regional Bar Charts| View Chart Data | View Full Screen

national levels of ILI and ARI

Is it more dangerous than “regular” flu?

No. The overall mortality is staying well below the 2007-08 and 2004-05 levels, while the pediatric mortality is far below what we were seeing in February of this year, from seasonal flu.

Pneumonia And Influenza Mortality

Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality

Should I worry?
Think back to February: there was a lot more flu around then, it was just as dangerous, if not more so, much of it was Tamiflu-resistant (swine flu is very sensitive to, and treatable by, Tamiflu), there were many more deaths from the “regular” flu than are reported from swine flu — the level of concern should not be any higher now than it was back in February.   All precautions you took then should be in force now; and you should have the same criteria for going to the doctor.
Are the schools handling this epidemic appropriately?
Mainly, yes; the only criticism I have is their policy of requiring a doctor’s note stating that a child DOES NOT have swine flu to return to school.  I have had a few children who tested negative on the first day of fever and positive on second or third, when virus shedding is much higher, and only the health department can test for the difference between seasonal and swine flu, so asking for such letter from a general pediatrician is grossly inappropriate.
I also would like to see how the schools handle make-up exams for the many children who will miss finals this year; if past experience holds, we are in for another avalanche of doctor’s notes which I will once again be tempted to sign, Epstein’s Mother.

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2 thoughts on “Swine Flu 4.4: Graphic FAQ

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