Swine Flu 4.93: Off for the Summer?

It’s now about 7 weeks without a single positive flu test, which makes one wonder: where did it go?  It is certainly around in the Southern hemisphere, where it is winter now (about 1% of New Zealand’s largest cities population was seen with flu-like complaints during one week in July), and even in the Northern hemisphere, some countries are just starting seeing massive numbers of cases, and some states still have widespread flu.  So the question is, why are we not seeing any cases here in Brighton Beach?

Theory 1: Practically everyone in the neighborhood who was going to get the flu, has already done so.

–well, if that’s the case, we should be fairly safe come fall.

Theory 2: Transmission has been interrupted by “summer factors” — better ventilation, moister air, decreased crowding…

– in which case, more open windows, humidifiers, and a liberal school attendance policy should be helpful.  School un-crowding is especially important with swine flu because attack rates for this particular strain appear highest in the 5 to 24 year old cohort.

Theory 3: D-fense!  Vitamin D does appear to strengthen the immune response, especially against respiratory infections, and Vitamin D supplementation (along with A, C, zinc, and others which may be helpful) is certainly worth trying.  In my own practice I have been measuring 25-OH vitamin D levels in the serum of patients presenting for a variety of complaints, and an appalling number have come up deficient.  Although most, as expected, were either dark-skinned individuals or indoor WoW addicts, I did have a low Vitamin D level in a freckled sunburned redhead.  (Yes, I did read the riot act about hazards of sunburn).

Theory 4: An Unknown Factor.  No one knows why, in 1976, swine flu infected 100 soldiers at Fort Dix, and no one elsewhere.  If this flu strain plays a similar practical joke, that X-factor may be easier to find with modern molecular techniques.

Well, off to work…


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